authors: Andrew T Levin, Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Sierra Pugh, Bailey K Fosdick, Anthony B. Zwi, Anup Malani, Satej Soman, Lonni Besançon, Ilya Kashnitsky, Sachin Ganesh, Aloysius McLaughlin, Gayeong Song, Rine Uhm, Daniel Herrera-Esposito, Gustavo de los Campos, Ana Carolina Pecanha Antiono, Enyew Birru Tadese, Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz

Links

• BMJ Global Health paper
• Medium blog post
• Github repository:
  • input data
  • statistical model
  • model output
  • supplementary material

Highlights

• Age-stratified infection fatality rates (IFRs) of COVID-19 in developing countries are about twice those of high-income countries.
• Seroprevalence (as measured by antibodies against SARS-CoV-2) is broadly similar across age cohorts, underscoring the challenges of protecting older age groups in developing countries.
• Population IFR in developing countries is similar to that of high-income countries, because differences in population age structure are roughly offset by disparities in healthcare access as well as elevated infection rates among older age cohorts.
• These results underscore the urgency of disseminating vaccines throughout the developing world.